As the saying goes...

...absence makes the heart grow fonder. Of course, I meant to post that I would be take a roughly month long sabbatical, but a flight time change left me unable to do so. Sorry for those of you who occassionally checked in. And thanks to anyone who might have actually worried.

Deep Strike

A helicopter raid into the Bekka Valley by the IDF took place earlier today. Both YNet and Haaretz have info. A couple of important points to make:

1) Hizb'allah's stock of SAMs must be fairly low, otherwise Israel probably wouldn't have launched this attack. Choppers, especially transport ones, are fairly vulnerable to MANPADs, and thus Hizb'allah must have been felt to have possessed few, or had lost the few it had. No word yet on any Israeli helo losses.

2) This attack was apparently aimed to capture/kidnap a major Hizb'allah official. The fact that they aimed to capture him indicates that either Israel hoped to trade him for their kidnapped soldiers, or to pry him for information. Could be both

3) This was a high risk operation. A lot could have gone wrong, and casualties could have been high. Israel's talk about exanding the ground war doesn't seem to be bluster, they seem to have the political will to continue on and press harder.

4) This operation could also have been a quasi-training mission, as preparation/practice for the possible rescue of the two kidnapped Israeli soldiers, though I find that unlikely.

Necessary Steps

Here is a post I wrote on Strategypage:

or those of you who have been paying some attention to the Lebanese blogosphere, many are angry that Israel is going after Hizb'allah in Lebanon, rather than Assad in Syria, who is, after all, one of Hizb'allah's patrons. However, they understandly fail to appreciate the military situation. I reference readers to this map, courtesy of Debka:
http://www.debka.com/pictures/Lebanon.jpg

If one looks at where the shortest route from Israel to Damascus is, its easy to realize that is skirts Southern Lebanon. In essence, if Israel were to go after Syria first, it would leave its flank open to Hizb'allah attacks from Lebanon. Israel would probably have no choice but go into Lebanon to attack Hizb'allah positions, so that they can't disrupt the Israeli lines of supply into Syria. In short, Israel would have to deal with Hizb'allah in Lebanon if it wanted to go after Syria.

This means it makes as much sense for Israel to go after Hizb'allah first, before going after Syria. One consequence of this means that if Israel does in fact intend to go after Syria, that attack will only come after Hizb'allah has largely been neutralized inside Lebanon, and most likley after large elements of Hizb'allah have fled to Syria. Israel might only intend to deal with Hizb'allah now, but the dicates of the geography of the region and military necessity meant that whichever strategy Israel takes, it is indistinguishable from the other.

The actual post can be found here.

Opening up The War Room

I just created this site as a place where bloggers can get together and talk about the war. As is, there is no central location for debate and discussion on the war at the moment. It is spread out at the moment. The idea I have in mind is something akin to the Corner, with lots of constant, smaller posts.